Purpose of Assignment
The purpose of this assignment is for students to learn how to make managerial decisions using a case study on Normal Distribution. This case uses concepts from Weeks 1 and 2. It provides students an opportunity to perform sensitivity analysis and make a decision while providing their own rationale. This assignment also shows students that statistics is rarely used by itself. It shows tight integration of statistics with product management.
Resources: Microsoft ExcelÂ®, SuperFun Toys Case Study, SuperFun Toys Case Study Data Set
Review the SuperFun Toys Case Study and Data Set.
Develop a 1,050-word case study analysis including the following:
- Use the sales forecaster’s prediction to describe a normal probability distribution that can be used to approximate the demand distribution.
- Sketch the distribution and show its mean and standard deviation. Hint: To find the standard deviation, think Empirical Rule covered in Week 1.
- Compute the probability of a stock-out for the order quantities suggested by members of the management team (i.e. 15,000; 18,000; 24,000; 28,000).
- Compute the projected profit for the order quantities suggested by the management team under three scenarios: pessimistic in which sales are 10,000 units, most likely case in which sales are 20,000 units, and optimistic in which sales are 30,000 units.
- One of SuperFun’s managers felt the profit potential was so great the order quantity should have a 70% chance of meeting demand and only a 30% chance of any stock- outs. What quantity would be ordered under this policy, and what is the projected profit under the three sales scenarios?